Addressing Nature's Negatives to Get to Nature Positive

We often think of nature as purely positive. Those of us living in urban environments will typically say more trees, mountains, lakes, rivers, birds, or pollinators are always better. And research shows that nature has many positive benefits to society via ecosystem services– indeed, more than half of GDP is moderately to highly dependent on nature. But nature can also have downsides, and these costs are often not shared equally: from the impacts of a hurricane, to hitting a deer while driving your car, to the loss of a cow killed by a wild predator. These experiences can result in retaliatory actions against wildlife by local people. If wildlife are not seen as a net benefit to the community it can lead to declines of charismatic yet high-conflict creatures.

Nature is a foundational component of society and our economy – more than half of global GDP relies on it. To create a truly nature positive world that supports a strong economy and society, we will need to acknowledge, measure, and compensate for the costs of living with nature. We also need to go beyond compensation to create net-positive outcomes for local communities. Otherwise, those closest to nature, who experience the greatest costs, don’t have a strong incentive to conserve and restore it. 

It’s especially important to get this right when the costs of living with nature are borne by vulnerable people. For example, some of the most iconic and charismatic animals in the world are large carnivores- from leopards to wolves to grizzly bears, they capture our imaginations with their ferocity, strength, and beauty. But many large carnivores share landscapes with humans who are highly economically vulnerable to carnivore predation on their livestock as a share of their income, and we currently lack mechanisms at scale for ensuring win-win outcomes for these human-wildlife neighbors.

The Unequal Burden of Living With Carnivores

For those that live alongside large carnivores, they are not such easy neighbors. or those who make a living raising livestock, from ranchers dealing with wolf predation in the U.S. rocky mountain west, to herders in sub-saharan africa contending with lions and hyenas, livestock and carnivores rarely overlap without conflict. Ash, some people raising livestock are much more vulnerable to a carnivore depredation of their herd than others, depending on their income.

Peer-Reviewed Research on Living With Carnivores

A recent collaborative paper co-authored by NCX’s biodiversity lead, Dr. Sophie Gilbert, along with co-authors from around the world (Alexander Braczkowski, Christopher O'Bryan, Christian Lessmann,, Carlo Rondinini, Anna P. Crysell, Martin Stringer, Luke Gibson, and Duan Biggs) highlights this unequal burden of living with top carnivores. The study found that globally, the economic vulnerability to losing a cow is 2-8 times higher for households in developing and transitioning countries than for those in developed countries, as measured by impacts to annual per capita income. For the lowest income areas, the loss of a single cow was equal to the calories needed to support a child for more than a year, representing a huge potential loss to family well-being.

Creating programs that help offset these high potential costs of living with carnivores is critical for the long-term wellbeing of carnivores and of vulnerable people. Our study found that 82% of the global area where large carnivores occur (the collection of their global “ranges”) falls outside of currently protected areas, and a number of threatened carnivore species have ranges that overlap with the areas that are most economically vulnerable to the loss of a cow to predation.

Human-Carnivore Conflict Resolution

Across the human-carnivore conflict literature, there are many examples of successes and failures at reducing conflict. In the US, there’s a long and checkered history of programs and approaches, mostly focused on compensating livestock producers for predation. But many livestock producers would tell you that these compensation programs are not adequate compared to the costs of living and ranching alongside carnivores. Some innovative new programs are working to move beyond compensation schemes, via partnerships and research, payments and training programs for non-lethal conflict mitigation tools, like the Conflict Reduction Consortium founded by the Western Landowners Alliance.

Another great example of innovation to create human-carnivore win-wins is the community conservancy system in Namibia. Across community conservancies, livestock husbandry co-exists alongside wildlife-driven livelihoods, and nationally tourism focused on charismatic species such as lions, leopards and elephants contributes 10% of the country’s GDP. Across the diverse landscapes of Namibian conservancies, both eco-tourism and hunting play a role in sustaining payments and employment opportunities to the community, depending on the local environment and how conducive it is to photo-safaris. This creates conditions where the abundance of large carnivores and herbivores is seen as a positive by the local community. The result is  opportunities for new forms of livelihood in guiding, hospitality, and monitoring of the wildlife and habitat. Namibian conservancies, in partnerships with NGOs like the World Wildlife Fund, are currently exploring wildlife connectivity credits and REDD+ carbon credits as a next phase to create new sources of conservation finance for landscape-scale wildlife outcomes.

In the far northern boreal forests of Sweden indigenous Sami reindeer herders co-exist with large carnivores such as Wolverines and brown bears, often sustaining losses of caribou calves and creating dis-incentives to tolerate large carnivores. A payment-for-conservation program that compensated Sami herders based on success of wolverine reproductions within their community’s herding area doubled the number of wolverines over a decade. However, these co-existence payment schemes are likely still not sufficient to make up for the economic losses due to all large carnivores, as a recent study on brown bear predation on Sami caribou calves demonstrated.

As we move towards developing new sources of conservation finance through mechanisms like biodiversity crediting, we need to ensure that the social components are as well-designed as the biological components. Fortunately, there is a rich body of research and practitioner knowledge to draw from, and these knowledge holders should be involved in programs from the beginning. Overall, it is clear that as we are to become more nature positive, we must also ensure that outcomes are human-positive. 

Read the peer reviewed research paper “The unequal burden of human-wildlife conflict” here

What would it take to restore cougars in the eastern US?

If you've hiked a lot in the western US, there's a decent chance you've been close to a cougar but just don't know it. That's because they are incredibly secretive, and have one of the lowest attack and fatality rates on humans of any big cat (although they're very effective at preying on deer and other wild mammals, as well as livestock and pets in some instances).

They are also relatively tolerant of human activity and disturbance— look no farther than the populations living in California's coastal mountains above Santa Cruz. There, researchers found the big cats avoid humans, especially when choosing a den site or seeking a mate, but still managed to feed, move, and reproduce successfully in relatively close proximity to human populations.

But the eastern US has been devoid of cougars for many decades, with the exception of the Florida Panther (a smaller and endangered sub-species of cougar occurring only in certain parts of Florida). While cougars are slowly re-colonizing patches of suitable habitat in the Midwest, human densities are much higher in the east. Is it even possible for cougars to live in such a human-modified landscape? Can they get there on their own, if so? And how might they impact humans, positively and negatively, if they get there?

A new research paper out this week by Mark Elbroch of Panthera, is making the case for returning cougars to viable habitat in the east. He and his co-authors reviewed the literature and aggregated expert opinion to identify key variables that determine cougar habitat suitability – land needed to not be agriculture, be mostly covered by forest, not have too deep of snow, have moderate to low housing density in general and not be too close to those houses, and not be right next to a major road. They also factored in human-wildlife conflict, by excluding any areas with high livestock densities where the big cats would be likely to get into trouble and be lethally removed by wildlife managers as a result. they found 13 suitable habitat areas that met these criteria and were at least 10,000 square kilometers, across the Upper Midwest, Ozarks, New England, and Appalachia. They and others have argued that cougars are ecologically important, affecting many other parts of the ecosystem, and are therefore a key restoration target.

While cougars could eventually get there on their own if given enough time, there is a strong case to be made for giving them a helping hand. That's because cougars and other top carnivores can have some big benefits for society, including reducing the negative impacts of over-abundant prey like white-tailed deer. These "predation services" of cougars and other top predators are an area I've researched, along with collaborators. Using predator-prey population models, we found that if cougars recolonized the eastern US, they could reduce deer-vehicle collisions by 22% within 30 years, preventing 21,400 human injuries, 155 fatalities, and $2.13 billion in avoided costs. Based on data from South Dakota, we estimated that cougars are already saving around $1 million per year by preventing deer-vehicle collisions. And that's not factoring in other benefits cougars could have, like increased success of tree seedlings planted by foresters and browsed by deer, enhanced forest biodiversity (because over-abundant deer simplify forest structure and foodwebs), and maybe even carbon sequestration (because over-abundant deer reduce standing biomass and can impact below-ground carbon and biomass as well).

But of course, top carnivores like cougars also have real costs to humans living alongside them, from depredation of pets and livestock, to fewer deer for hunters and wildlife watchers to enjoy, to the fear that many people feel just knowing that there are cougars out there. And every now and then, people are attacked and even killed by cougars, although such instances are extremely rare. These perceptions of risk make people less tolerant of the big cats, impacting the likelihood of success for recolonizing populations whether that process is natural or assisted by humans.

Quantifying all of the costs and benefits to understand the "net effect" of predators and their ecosystem services and disservices is very difficult, and may even be impossible. But if we want to restore fully-functioning ecosystems, complete with top carnivores to regulate the system, we will need to take into account the true costs of living alongside them and mitigate these cost for those impacted. This means design and implementation of new forms of conservation finance so we can pay people for tolerating and providing habitat for a big, scary, and sometimes damaging cat in their neck of the woods. Cougar habitat credits, anyone?

(Note: I also published this as a LinkedIn Article, available here)

Just published: Applying the ecology of fear to solve wildlife management problems

The ecology of fear is a topic of heated discussion for researchers, but fear research until recently was not usually translated into the “real world” of applied management. However, that’s changing. From helping threatened species recover, to reducing damages to crops and livestock, to helping with invasive species management and reintroduction of species, fear could enhance outcomes. Read more about the current and future applications of fear to management here!

Just published: glacier mice (made of moss) and their amazing lives on the ice

Glacier moss balls, also called glacier mice or yokulmeis, are mysterious balls of (adorable) moss that are found in large groups on certain glaciers around the world. Here, we share their amazing story, their movement and survival rates, and more in a new paper published this month in Polar Biology.

Co-author Tim Bartholomaus also sums up this research nicely in a series of (viral) tweets! Twitter also provided us with a modified photo of our mossballs, courtesy of a science twitter fan, that included googly eyes. Enjoy!


Moss balls do not actually have googly eyes. But other than that, this photo (which is from our research) is accurate.

Moss balls do not actually have googly eyes. But other than that, this photo (which is from our research) is accurate.






Just published: TWS Alaska Chapter statement on Tongass Nat. Forest Roadless Rule change

The Tongass National Forest is the largest in the US, and also one of the biggest reserves of old-growth temperate forest in the world. Quite a bit of its area is protected be the Roadless Rule from timber harvest and development, but the US government is currently considering giving the Tongass an exemption to the Roadless Rule, potentially opening up huge acreage to resource extraction. As part of a team of authors from the Alaska Chapter of The Wildlife Society, Sophie Gilbert helped draft the comment letter that TWS AK recently submitted to Sunny Purdue, the Secretary of the interior.

Read the letter here.

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Just published: How scary are carnivores for ungulates, and how can we tell?

Our new paper, “Designing studies of predation risk for improved inference in carnivore ungulate systems,” was recently published in Biological Conservation. In it, we lay out the case for standardizing metrics of risk, and fear responses, which types of evidence make for strongest inference, and where we see this area of research headed.